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Heat pump vs furnace: which costs less to run?
Pick your state and your current fuel: the same winter of heat is priced with gas, propane, oil, a heat pump and baseboard heat.
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Heating with a heat pump in Ohio
$1,299 a year
$407 more than your current system ($892)
| Gas furnace, 80% AFUE | $892 (651 therms) |
| Propane furnace, 80% AFUE | $1,836 (712 gal) |
| Oil furnace, 80% AFUE | $1,756 (470 gal) |
| Heat pump, HSPF2 7.5 | $1,299 (6,944 kWh) |
| Electric resistance (baseboard, strip heat) | $2,854 (15,264 kWh) |
Same heat (52.1 million Btu a year) delivered by each system at Ohio prices: electricity 18.70¢/kWh (January to July 2026), fuels averaged over October 2025 to March 2026 (EIA). HSPF2 ÷ 3.412 gives a seasonal COP of 2.20; in very cold weather a heat pump’s output and efficiency drop. How this is calculated.
A heat pump at the federal minimum of 7.5 HSPF2 heats more cheaply than an 80% gas furnace wherever electricity costs less than about 14.11¢ per kWh, at the U.S. average residential gas price of last winter, $15.59 per thousand cubic feet. The national average electricity price is 18.19¢, so in the typical state gas still wins on running cost, but the heat pump comes out ahead in 9 of the 41 states where EIA publishes a winter gas price. Against propane the picture flips: the break-even electricity price climbs to 26.17¢ at the national propane average, and a minimum heat pump undercuts a propane furnace in all 38 states with a propane price. Oil and baseboard heat are usually the costliest. The calculator prices the same delivered heat with every system, using your state's EIA prices and the space-heating use RECS 2020 measured in your Census division.
Same heat, five price tags
The comparison only works if each system delivers the same amount of heat. The calculator starts from what you burn or buy today, by default the average space-heating use that the Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020 found in your division, and multiplies it by your system's efficiency to get the heat that actually reached the rooms. In Ohio, the default state, the gas default is 651 therms a year; at 80% AFUE that delivers 52.1 million Btu. Then it asks what each alternative would spend to supply that heat: a gas, propane or oil furnace at 80% efficiency, a heat pump at the HSPF2 rating you set, and electric resistance at 100%.
Fuel contents follow EIA conversion factors: 3,412 Btu per kWh, 1,036 per cubic foot of gas, 91,452 per gallon of propane and 138,500 per gallon of heating oil. A heat pump's HSPF2 divided by 3.412 gives its seasonal coefficient of performance: 2.20 at the minimum, so each kWh bought moves a little over two kWh of heat indoors.
| State | Gas furnace | Propane furnace | Oil furnace | Heat pump | Baseboard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | $623 | $702 | $794 | $398 | $874 |
| Ohio | $892 | $1,836 | $1,756 | $1,299 | $2,854 |
| North Dakota | $555 | $1,027 | $1,668 | $759 | $1,669 |
| New York | $931 | $2,045 | $1,643 | $1,661 | $3,651 |
| Alaska | $300 | $659 | $683 | $682 | $1,499 |
The break-even electricity price
Every comparison boils down to one ratio: the price of a kWh against the price of fuel, adjusted for efficiency. At the national gas average, a 7.5 HSPF2 heat pump matches an 80% furnace at 14.11¢ per kWh. Against a 95% condensing furnace the bar drops to 11.88¢, because the furnace wastes less. Against propane it rises to 26.17¢. Your utility bill shows your own rates; if they differ from the state average, type them into the calculator.
The spread between states is wide. The heat pump does best against gas in Arkansas, where it costs 64% of the gas bill, and worst in Alaska, where it costs 227%, driven by a 27.09¢ electricity price against gas at $13.18 per thousand cubic feet.
Cold weather and the rating
HSPF2 is a seasonal average for a standard climate. In a long, very cold winter a heat pump delivers less heat per kWh, and many rely on resistance strips when the outdoor temperature falls far enough. If your winters are harsh, use a lower HSPF2 in the calculator than the label shows, or ask the installer for the model's capacity and efficiency at low temperatures. In mild climates the real efficiency can beat the rating.
Rules that shape the choice in 2026
Under 10 CFR 430.32, a new split heat pump must reach 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2. A new non-weatherized gas furnace must reach 80% AFUE today; the minimum moves to 95% on December 18, 2028. That later rule does not ban furnaces, but it ends the cheapest non-condensing models and their simple venting.
The federal 30% credit for heat pumps and efficient furnaces covered improvements made through December 31, 2025, the IRS says, so it plays no part in a 2026 decision. Utility rebates exist in places and change during the year. A heat pump also replaces the air conditioner, which a furnace does not, so price the pair: heat pump installation and furnace and AC replacement each have their own page.